[转贴] March 9, 2014 Weekend Market Update

沁颍

Last week marked the 5 year anniversary of the stock market bottom brought about primarily by the financial collapse of subprime mortgages.   Ironically, the S& P 500 reached a new all-time high of 1883.57 on Thursday thanks to better than expected employment numbers  drowning out any concerns over the ongoing Russian conflict.  Friday’s upbeat employment surprise also exposed a resilient economy after 175K jobs were generated in February along with upward revisions for previous months in light of paralyzing weather in much of the country.  The financial sector was the biggest benefactor last week after a 3% jump occurred in the lagging sector as it attempts to catch up from a prolonged drought.   



Volatility remained in check with a tight range near $14 seen for the remainder of the week after quickly retreating from Monday’s spike of $16.78.  The early move was in response to the crisis in Ukraine which had quickly spiraled over the previous weekend.   Ten year Treasury yields shot higher to finish the week at 2.79%, which was the highest percentage seen by the benchmark since late January. The sharp move was mainly attributed to the strong jobs number and the realization of an eventual rate hike if the economy continues to gain momentum.  Oil Futures (/CL) saw a whipsaw effect over the last five days before closing essentially at the exact same level it began at with $102.69 a barrel.  Oil and gold futures may continue to see ongoing volatility if the geo-political climate escalates any further for the higher beta commodities.



There is only a modest amount of data being disseminated this week with retail and consumer reports being the highest concentration.   Last week saw several contradictory results from several key retail names like: Costco (COST) Gap Stores (GPS) and Foot Locker (FL) all telling drastically different stories of the current state of the consumer.   Any encouraging numbers discounting the unpopular bad weather may be a potential catalyst for yet a new push higher.  The influence of Federal Reserves is expected to remain quiet over the near-term with only a small handful of speaking engagements scheduled for active members during the next several sessions.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: CASY, CCL, DRL, FCEL, MW, URBN



Tuesday: AEO, CZR, DKS, DMND, PAY



Wednesday: EXPR, KKD, MTN, WSM



Thursday: ARO, DG, GOGO, ZUMZ



Friday: BKE, HIBB,



Economic Releases (3/10-3/14):



Monday:

06:15 am CT – FOMC Member Plosser speaks

11:30 am CT – TD AMERITRADE IMX



Tuesday:

6:30 am CT –NFIB Small Business Index

9:00 am CT – JOLTS Job Openings

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Inventories



Wednesday:

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results



Friday:

7:30 am CT- Producer Price Index

8:55 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

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