July 20, 2014
Stocks once again were ‘bought on a dip’ after a mid-week decline this past week. Upbeat earnings data trumped geopolitical concerns throughout July monthly expiration week for equities. A downed passenger flight over the Russian-controlled section of Ukraine brought fear into the markets but was once again just a bump to the higher trending stock market. Economic data was mixed this past week but modest inflation and slow growth seem to have investors in a positive frame of mind. Many are predicting a correction or pull-back in equities but the fundamental picture at the corporate level still looks healthy, and that causes economists to think that equity markets could continue their upward march in the U.S. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) both finished the week relatively flat. The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led stocks almost up 1% but the small caps (RUT) finished the week down 0.7%. The small-caps continue to under-perform the overall market and often are viewed as a gauge of the stock market’s appetite for risk. The width between the Blue-Chips and the small caps continues to widen but should eventually correct at some point in the near-term.
Option Volatility spiked on Thursday this past week after the Malaysian Jet was shot down. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped above the $15 level for the first time since the end of April on Thursday. The ‘Fear Gauge’ quickly gave back the gains on Friday as equities rose throughout the session. It is surprising how many risks are evident globally and domestically but downside risk seems to be ignored. A low interest rate environment and an accommodative stance by the Fed continue to provide an avenue for the move into riskier assets such as stocks. Despite this, we have been in the markets for too long to ignore the risks and similarities to the downturns from the mid-nineties, the tech bubble of 2000 and the housing-induced recession from 2007.
Treasury yields ended the week down slightly as bond purchases remained strong. The 10-year Note yield slipped below the 2.5% threshold on Thursday on the equity sell-off as the demand for the safety of U.S. treasuries exploded. Although stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, demand for Bonds continues to rise. This trend may continue as the U.S. is still the favorite of investor’s world-wide as our markets are stable and growth is slowly rising.
With a relatively light economic schedule this week, the focus is will be on earnings and Housing data. 146 companies in the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) deliver second quarter results this upcoming week. 72% of the companies that already reported have beaten consensus forecasts. What many forget while reporting these figures are the reduced expectations that surface ahead of the results. Housing has lagged other sectors during the recovery and they should provide some potential volatility this week if they continue to disappoint.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – AGN, BBT, HAL, HAS, MAN, STI
P.M. - BCC, CMG, NFLX, TXN, ZION
Tuesday:
A.M. – ACI, AMTD, BTU, KO, CMCSA, CS, DPZ, HOG, IR, KMB, LXK, LMT, MCD, MO, RF, STT, TRV, UTX, VZ
P.M.- AAPL, BRCM, DFS, EA, ISRG, JNPR, MSFT, UIS, VMW, XLNX
Wednesday:
A.M. – BIIB, BA, DAL, DOW, EMC, FCX, GD, JNS, NSC, NOC, OC, PEP, PX, RAI, SPG, TMO
P.M. – ANGI, CA, CRUS, CTXS, FFIV, FB, FIO, GILD, MBFI, QCOM, RJF, T, TER, TEX, TSCO, TRIP
Thursday:
A.M. – BSX, BMY, COG, CAJ, CAT, CELG, CNX, DHI, DAN, DPS, DNKN, LLY, F, GM, HSY, JBLU, KKR, NOK, NUE, POT, RTN, LUV, HOT, SVU, UAL, UA, UNP, USG
P.M. – ALTR, AMZN, BIDU, ELY, CB, CLF, DECK, KLAC, NTGR, OLN, P, PFG, RVBD, SBUX, TSRO, UHS, VRSN
Friday:
A.M. – AON, COV, MCO, SWK, VTR, WHR, XRX
Economic Releases (7/21-7/25):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index
Tuesday:
6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index Flash
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders |