沁颍

Weekend Update

June 8, 2014

Data impacted by adverse winter weather and the following rebound are now coming into play. The latest numbers are showing improvement, which is providing lift to equities. Despite this, the moderate growth has provided too much of a boon to stocks.  The ISM manufacturing report provided unexpected volatility to markets early last week. After hours of confusion, the Institute for Supply Management officially corrected its initial report to show that the pace of growth in the US manufacturing sector accelerated in May instead slowing in the initial release. Stocks had moved lower after the ISM reported what turned out to be erroneous data however; they rebounded in the afternoon once the corrected data on manufacturing showed the sector expanding. Midweek showed some profit-taking but even a miss on the ADP number could not stop the rally. Thursday and Friday saw the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at record levels once again as any moderate data is a positive at this point. S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a robust 1.3% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was up 1.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) jumped 1.9% on more Apple (AAPL) gains into its stock split for Monday. The small caps (RUT) finished the week up a 2.7% as its trying to catch up to the other benchmarks that were out-performing the sector.



Option Volatility is dismal and non-existent as equities hit new highs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled at 10.73 and had its lowest levels since before the recession in 2007.  The VIX broke some key support levels around the $11.30 level as option buying wanes.Stock and option volumes are extremely low but many are staying on the sidelines as bubble-type moves are worrying investors.



Treasury yields rose notably this past week. The biggest moves were Monday and Tuesday. At the week's start, yields rose moderately on news of a measure of Chinese manufacturing hitting a five-month high and on a corrected ISM report showed manufacturing in May at its strongest growth this year. After no change Wednesday and muted reaction to the Beige Book, rates nudged down after the ECB announced unprecedented policy measures to loosen monetary policy. Yields flattened Friday after the May jobs report which showed a moderate rise in payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate at 6.3 percent.



The focus this week is on the consumer and Retail Sales. Last week showed improving employment gains and the question is whether the consumer will continue the spring thaw in spending. Motor vehicle sales were up strongly for May but will other components in retail sales follow this trend? Consumer confidence has been stalling and we get an early reading for consumer sentiment for June this week. Earnings season is all but over so focus will be on the moderate amount of data this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  HTZ



Tuesday: OXM, PBY, SAIC, ULTA, UNFI



Wednesday: HRB, MVC



Thursday: CASY, FNSR, LULU, RFIL



Friday: N/A



Economic Releases (6/9-6/13):

Monday:

8:10 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Retail Sales

7:30 am CT –Import & Export Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – PPI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

aimei

谢谢

沁颍

6/9/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading just slightly lower as the market looks to extend its latest rally. The S&P 500 (SPX) is now just below the 2000 milestone. Analysts believe it will take a couple of weeks for the index to reach that level, as it has not moved more than 1.0% in a single session in almost two months. The Dow Jones ($DJI) is also making its way toward its next major milestone of 17,000 and stands just 76 points away from that level. With a thin week of economic news and earnings, we could see the market continue to grind higher and reach those extended levels. McDonald’s (MCD) releases it same-store sales this morning ahead of the opening bell.



Risk-on trading helped extend losses in Treasuries this morning. Weakness in core Asian and European bonds also weighed on fixed income markets. The 10-year yield rose over the 2.6% level to hit 2.62%. A better than expected upward revision to Japan Q1 GDP to 6.7%, and a sharp rise in China's trade surplus saw a flow into stocks overseas. Today's U.S. calendar is void of any significant data and includes only Fed-speak from Bullard, Tarullo, and Rosengren. Supply will be a feature this week with the $62 B in Treasury coupon auctions, beginning with Tuesday's 3-year note sale. Data over the rest of the week, includes retail sales, trade prices, PPI, JOLTS, and consumer sentiment.



Stock Stories:

Merck (MRK) – M&A, at the top?! –The pharmaceutical giant is acquiring Idenix (IDIX) for $24.50 a share in a deal announced this morning.  Merck is using its cash hoard to buy the company for a premium of 230% above its closing price on Friday. Merck’s shares are slightly lower ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

8:10 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/9:

Before Market:   HTZ

After Market:   N/A



Tuesday – 6/10:

Before Market:  PBY, SAIC

After Market:  OXM, ULTA, UNFI

aimei

1950 过了

沁颍

6/10/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are trading lower as the market is looking heavy after its record setting rally. The Dow and S&P have closed higher in eight of the past nine sessions and set all-time closing highs on several of those days. Option volatility remains at extremely low levels but did manage to bounce higher yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 4% on Monday but hit levels on Friday not seen since before the recession in early 2007. Complacency is increasing but the lack of a negative catalyst can have equities continue their grind higher and keep volatility low.



Treasuries are a little lower in this morning. The yield on current 10-year is now firmly above the 2.6% level, which may become a near-term support level. Supply is weighing on Treasuries with the start of the $62 B in coupon auctions, beginning with today's 3-year Note sale. Overseas saw U.K. industrial production stronger than expected, while retail sales posted a modest gain. China CPI posted a 2.5% year over year rate, which was close to expectations and had stocks up over 1%. Today's calendar includes April JOLTS, April wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Banana Split –The tech product maker split its stock 7:1 yesterday.   The company stock price is now under $100 and has over 6 Billion shares outstanding.  The stock is up 69% from June 2013 and many are expecting a new set of products that are going to support the rally in the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - Down 2.8% for the week

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/10:

Before Market:   PBY, SAIC

After Market:   OXM, ULTA, UNFI



Wednesday – 6/11:

Before Market:  MVC

After Market:  HRB, SIGM

沁颍

Weekend Update

June 15, 2014


Random unscheduled effects had an impact on markets this past week. Iraq is back in the news, congressional changes and economic indicators came in as unexpected. In spite of this, markets only retreated modestly after once again setting all-time highs at the start of the week. More M&A activity buoyed stocks on Monday along with the gains from the previous week. Mid-week saw some profit taking as Republican House leader Cantor was defeated in his Primary. The World Bank also lowered growth expectations, which had some small negative impact on equities. Thursday, stocks dipped on disappointingly low retail sales and a slight increase in initial jobless claims. Adding to the downdraft in the afternoon were comments by President Obama that he refused to rule out U.S. action in Iraq against Islamist militants who have surged out of the north toward Baghdad, threatening to divide the country. Worries about oil supplies impacted stocks as well as oil prices. Stocks shook off concerns to end the week as stocks finished Friday up slightly. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down 0.7% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led the losses off 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) and the small caps (RUT) were both off by only 0.2%.



Option Volatility saw some life this past week on the slight downturn is stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 13% for the week but was coming off multi-year lows from the previous week’s slide.  The VIX has continually bounced off the $12 level over the last year and a half, but we did break key support levels as stocks hit all-time highs recently.  We may see some additional volatility in the markets if turmoil in Iraq picks up or economic news disappoints.  There is also the Fed to deal with this week as the FOMC concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday.



Treasury yields were only modestly changed this past week despite the unexpected news. There were some mixed Treasury auctions this past week but the 30-year on Thursday continued to show that demand is strong for the safety on Bonds.The bottom line is that monthly data have been volatile most notably for consumer spending and producer prices. Traders and investors may look to average recent numbers instead of focusing on just one month. Oil Futures (/CL) may have a larger effect on markets this week as the turmoil in Iraq as crude markets in flux. Crude prices hit levels not seen since last September on the backs of supply disruptions in Iraq and speculators.



This week's highlights are the FOMC decision Wednesday, the FOMC quarterly forecasts, and the chair press conference after the decision. Fed taper is expected to remain on course with another $10 billion reduction in bond purchases. What is new is how newly appointed Fed Board members fit in and affect the tone of policy. For indicators, there are key updates for manufacturing and housing. Industrial production has shown recent signs of new life including production worker hours and manufacturing surveys. Housing has been a tough read as its been flat except for gains in the multifamily component. Although earnings season is just about over, there are a few key reports due this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  KFY



Tuesday: ADBE, BOBE, LZB, UWN, YGE



Wednesday: ATU, FDX, JBL, RHT



Thursday: BBRY, KR, ORCL, PIR, RAD, SCHL, SWHC, TIBX



Friday: KMX. DRI



Economic Releases (6/16-6/20):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Int. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Chair Yellen Press Conference

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Philly Fed Survey

9:00 am CT –Leading Economic Indicators

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

N/A

沁颍

6/16/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES)are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors remain concerned about the advance of radical forces in Iraq. M&A activity continues to pick up as two new deals were announced.  The situation reminds us too much of past bubbles when buyout activity picks up at extended price levels. Option volatility may continue to bounce off recent lows as we finally have a catalyst for downside. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is above the $12 level despite Friday’s gains and should remain firm if stocks stay in the red.



Treasuries are higher with the Risk Off trade gaining steam. Geopolitical risks, especially with concerns over the increasing violence in Iraq have fostered a flight to safety. The yield on the 10-year note dropped back below the 2.6% level once again. Overseas bond markets are higher and stocks are lower. Along with the worsening conditions in Iraq, the Ukraine is still an issue, while the ECB's stimulus continues to underpin. The euro zone's annual inflation rate came in at 0.5% for May, staying in the "danger zone" of below 1%. Meanwhile, attention will be shifting to the FOMC decision (Wednesday), along with Yellen's press conference and the new Fed projections. As for today, the calendar includes June Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production and capacity utilization, the June homebuilder sentiment survey, and April Treasury capital flows data. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its annual review of the U.S. economy today at 7:30 am CT. IMF Director Lagarde will hold a news conference to discuss the report.



Stock Stories:

Yelp.com (YELP) – Five Stars –YELP shares gained last week after Open Table (OPEN) agreed to be bought by Priceline (PCLN). The stock jumped 14% on Friday and may become a target as M&A activity picks up.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Int. Capital

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/16:

Before Market:   N/A

After Market:   KFY



Tuesday – 6/17:

Before Market:  GAI, UWN

After Market:  ADBE, LZB

沁颍

6/17/2014

U.S. stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open as investors remain optimistic about the turmoil in Iraq. Both Oil (/CL) and Gold Futures (/GC) are pulling back as concerns from traders contracts. M&A activity continues to pick up as two new deals were announced.  The bullish trend is still present and investors continue to ignore any negative news. Despite yesterday’s small advance, option volatility actually rose slightly.  While stocks continue to grind back towards all-time highs, traders are still balancing their portfolios in the option market by purchasing option protection, albeit modestly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now firmly above $12 but should pull in if stocks remain in positive territory.



Bonds are little changed with a slight bearish leaning, in sync with modest declines in bonds overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield traded narrowly around 2.60%. Stocks are mixed with Asian stocks mostly lower, European markets slightly higher and U.S. equity futures flat. Data overnight showed several surprises with Chinese foreign direct investment declining year over year. German confidence fell to 29.8, and U.K. CPI slowed to 1.5%. In the U.S. the FOMC begins its 2-day policy meeting. Along with tomorrow's announcement, there's a Yellen press conference and the release of new Fed forecasts. Data on tap today includes May CPI, housing starts, and weekly chain store sales.



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) – Charging –The electric car-makers stock spike over 8% yesterday.   Two of Tesla's (TSLA) competitors in the electric car space, Nissan and BMW Group have expressed an interest in collaborating on charging technology.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/17:

Before Market:   GAI, UWN

After Market:   ADBE, LZB



Wednesday– 6/18:

Before Market:  ATU, FDX

After Market:  JBL, RHT

沁颍

6/18/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a flat to slightly higher open as traders look to continue the grind upwards. Yesterday’s poor housing data and a hotter than expected read on inflation did not prevent the Bulls from buying early morning weakness once again. The FOMC finishes up a two day meeting today with a policy decision and press conference from Chair Yellen. The FOMC is expected to further reduce its bond-buying program by $10 billion to $35 billion a month, and leave unchanged the Fed funds policy target of 0% to 0.25%.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains near the $12 but may strengthen on any hiccups out of the Fed today.



Treasuries are a little higher on ‘’Risk-Off’ flows, in tandem with bonds in Europe, amid reports Sunni militants attacked Iraq's largest oil refinery. The 10-year yield has dipped slightly to 2.64%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England minutes, as expected, reflected the increased hawkishness. This may signal higher rates sooner than expected. European markets were modestly higher as was Japan. The FOMC is the focus today, along with the Fed forecasts and Yellen's press conference. The MBA reported mortgage applications declined 9.2% in the week ended June 13, mostly erasing the prior week's 10.3% increase.



Stock Stories:

Adobe Systems (ADBE) – Jump on the Bandwagon –The software company and creator of PDF and Photoshop posted better than expected earnings after the bell yesterday. Cloud and digital creation subscriptions were the drivers to the positive quarter. The shares are up over 9% ahead of the opening bell on the heels of a massive amount of call option buying yesterday.



FedEx Corp. (FDX) – Delivered – The shipping giant posted better than expected quarterly results on higher top line Revenue figures. The company confirmed FY15 expectations on continued global growth.  The shares are up 3% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 9.2%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Forecasts

1:30 pm CT – Chair Yellen Press Conference



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday - 6/18:

Before Market:   ATU, FDX

After Market:   JBL, RHT



Thursday – 6/19:

Before Market:  BBRY, KR, PIR, RAD

After Market:  ORCL, SWHC, TIBX

沁颍

6/20/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat ahead of today's “quadruple witching” day. Today the stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures will all expire for the monthly June cycle. The day’s trading could be marked by higher volatility and higher volume but only if we can get a catalyst for movement. There will be little else for investors to key in on as no significant economic data is due to be released.Option volatility continues to weaken and is showing no signs of reversing. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and could potentially end up below $10 into the July 4thholiday.  Last time the VIX traded at these levels was just before the financial collapse in 2007.



Global bonds are mostly lower with the U.S. Treasury market the underachiever. The 10-year yield has risen to 2.64% as bonds turned negative throughout yesterday’s session. Overseas markets were mixed on light volume and there wasn't a lot of news overnight. The IMF has called on the ECB to consider a large scale asset purchase program, though market hopes for such are fading.



Stock Stories:

Darden restaurants (DRI) – Free Stale Breadsticks –The company falls short of analysts’ estimates with its quarterly report as weak traffic trends persists. All three restaurant concepts showed higher pricing during the quarter. The shares are down about 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Oracle Corp. (ORCL) – Re-Boot – The tech giant posted a disappointed quarterly report after the close yesterday.  The company is trying to build its cloud offerings but continues to struggle with competition. The shares are down 6% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

Quadruple witching Expiration



Notable Earnings:   

Friday - 6/20:

Before Market:   KMX. DRI

After Market:   N/A



Monday – 6/23:

Before Market: N/A

After Market:  MU, SONC

沁颍

June 22, 2014 Weekend Update

Equities were once again boosted by loose monetary policy. Weak housing data and mixed jobs data are also being offset by stronger than expected Manufacturing sector. The push into riskier assets such as stocks continues to be the Fed’s focus even as economic growth is showing signs of sustainability on its own. M&A activity is also boosting equities as companies reach for growth anywhere they can. Overall, favorable economic news (including Fed news) outweighed worries about the Ukraine and Iraq. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.4% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished the week up 1.0%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the rally and finished the week up 2.2%.



Every downturn in option Volatility this week saw a bounce higher but eventually continued its consolidation lower. We have not seen the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at these levels since 2007 just before the economic collapse.  While many have been calling for a stock market correction, the ‘Fear Gauge’ continues to defy its critics and show little downside risk. There is plenty of economic data to move markets this week and there was more negative news out of Russia and the Ukraine this weekend. Watch today’s 5 pm CT open of S&P 500 futures (/ES) for direction into Monday.



Treasury yields were essentially unchanged this past week although there were a few mild daily swings. Higher than expected inflation data on Tuesday (CPI) sent Bonds higher and yields lower but the Fed once again took care of this on its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) despite the turmoil in Iraq. High Crude prices will eventually negatively affect consumer spending but so far has not done so.



Housing has been sputtering in recent months and the focus is on this sector. Home prices have been decelerating and updates this week will stand out along with existing and new home sales. Also, manufacturing has shown new signs of life and the durables report will confirm or not whether strength is national. Finally, the highlight for the consumer sector is the personal income report. Although earnings season is just about over, there are a few key reports due this week including reports from Walgreens (WAG), General Mills (GIS) and Nike (NKE).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  MU, SONC



Tuesday: APOG, WAG



Wednesday: APOL, BBBY, BKS, CCL, GIS, LEN, LNN, MON



Thursday: CAN, CAG, MKC, NKE, WGO



Friday: FINL, KBH



Economic Releases (6/23-6/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Cadse/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results



                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

                     

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

6/23/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to start the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)  is close to 17,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 2,000, but both may have some resistance at these levels. Inflation is noticeably on the rise in the U.K., U.S., Canada, and Japan. Though special factors can account for some of the recent strength, the markets have not dismissed the run up as "noise" as Fed Chair Yellen did in her press conference. This debate won't be settled anytime soon and it will take many months before some clarity becomes evident.  Option volatility continues to weaken and is showing no signs of fear. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and it will take a significant catalyst to gain any upside traction.



Treasuries are a sharply higher with the 30-year bond out-performing. The 10-year yield has dipped back under 2.60%. Weakness in Eurozone manufacturing PMIs offset gains to the Chinese and Japanese readings, which boosted European debt markets while equities are slightly lower. Additionally supporting Euro-zone bonds were hints from ECB's Draghi that rates could stay low until at least 2016. Today's U.S. calendar has May existing home sales, the manufacturing PMI, and the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. The price of oil (/CL) continues to climb as the violence in Iraq escalates, which could negatively affect equities.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon  (LULU) – See through –The athletic apparel maker’s founder is constructing a strategy to gain more control at the company. He is in discussions with investment banks for either a Proxy fight for more Board seats or finding a partner for a buyout. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/23:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:   MU, SONC



Tuesday – 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:  APOG

oldhorse

gdp is the key this week, I am thinking how this would move the market which is stuck here now just waiting for it, I guess.

沁颍

6/24/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of a full day of economic reports and Fed-speak. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fall for the first time in 7 sessions, although it was only minimal. The major indices have not had a 1% move or greater in either direction for almost two months as complacency and consolidation have set in. Although there is plenty of market-moving news on tap, we could grind to new highs into the 4thof July weekend.  High oil prices (/CL) are putting pressure on stocks and may be the only bump in the road for equities to hit new upside milestones.



Treasuries are higher again this morning.  Bonds rose sharply for most of Monday’s session before finishing the session relatively flat. The 10-year yield had dipped back under 2.60% before firming into the close. Shares in Asia were higher led by markets in China.  European stocks were minimally lower after comments from Bank of England's Carney that rate increases will be "limited and gradual" in parliamentary testimony, and worries over reports ISIS has taken control of the largest oil refinery in Iraq. There's plenty of data on tap today including the 2-year Note auction, May new home sales, June consumer confidence and the April Case Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. There is also data from the June Richmond Fed, weekly chain store sales and Fed-speak today.



Stock Stories:

Walgreen Co.  (WAG) – Drugged –The retailer/Pharmacy chain posted weaker than expected quarterly results this morning. The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS but stated that synergies between itself and Alliance Boots in Europe are accelerating. The company unfortunately alsosays experiencing increased pressure on pharmacy gross profit margins.The shares are down 2% ahead of the opening bell and the option market had priced in a move of 3.5%.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 2% for the week

7:05 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:   APOG



Wednesday – 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:  BBBY, FUL

沁颍

6/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat this morning ahead of a slew of economic data.  Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reverse in the afternoon after hitting all-time highs again in the morning. The slide was quick and not supported by any significant news but may be signaling a near-term top in stocks. The markets are finally taking the turmoil in Iraq to task and there may be some profit taking into the end of the fiscal quarter. Option volatility spike higher on the equity sell-off yesterday as investors scrambled to buy protection from extremely low levels.  The CBOE volatility Index rose 10% and is now back above $12.  Despite the rally, any consolidation or rise in stocks would most likely send the ‘Fear Gauge back to previous levels very quickly.



Treasuries are up slightly in tandem with gains in overseas bonds, as stocks remain weak. The 10-year yield has slipped modestly to 2.57% in light volume trading. The U.K. CBI retail sales survey dropped sharply which caused European bonds to rise. The markets then shrugged off the better than expected German consumer confidence data. Geopolitical risks out of Iraq and Ukraine are also keeping investors nervous. There's a lot on the U.S. docket today with the 5-year note auction, along with data on durable orders, revised Q1 GDP and the flash PMI services index. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 1.0% in the week ended June 20.



Stock Stories:

General Mills (GIS) – No Prize in the box –The consumer goods maker posted worse than expected quarterly earnings this morning.  The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS and international sales continue to weaken. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 1% for the week

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday - 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:   BBBY, FUL



Thursday – 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:  NKE