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标题: [基础分析] 最近美股一些相关指标（与BREXIT无关） [打印本页]

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2016-6-28 21:04 标题: 最近美股一些相关指标（与BREXIT无关）

本帖最后由 tianfangye 于 2016-6-28 21:07 编辑

A. MAY ISM PMI， UP trend
B. ECRI， UP trend
C. RAILROAD CARTLOADS， WEAK

个人主观综合印象: 不确定但崩盘可能性较小

United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) 1948-2016 | Data

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.3 in May of 2016, up from 50.8 in April and much better than market expectations of 50.4. The gauge of supplier deliveries jumped to 54.1, the highest level since December 2014 while new orders and production growth eased slightly and employment and inventories fell. Business Confidence in the United States averaged 52.77 from 1948 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 77.50 in July of 1950 and a record low of 29.40 in May of 1980. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by the Institute for Supply Management.
ECRI

08-Aug-14	134.5	3.2
15-Aug-14	134.2	2.6
22-Aug-14	134.8	2.2
29-Aug-14	134.8	1.8
05-Sep-14	134.3	1.6
12-Sep-14	135.0	1.9
19-Sep-14	134.6	1.7
26-Sep-14	134.3	1.5
03-Oct-14	134.0	1.3
10-Oct-14	133.8	0.7
17-Oct-14	131.6	-0.5
24-Oct-14	131.4	-1.6
31-Oct-14	132.5	-2.2
07-Nov-14	132.2	-2.8
14-Nov-14	133.0	-2.4
21-Nov-14	131.7	-2.3
28-Nov-14	132.3	-2.3
05-Dec-14	132.6	-2.2
12-Dec-14	131.2	-2.9
19-Dec-14	131.0	-3.2
26-Dec-14	130.2	-3.9
02-Jan-15	130.3	-4.7
09-Jan-15	131.6	-4.5
16-Jan-15	130.7	-4.5
23-Jan-15	131.6	-3.9
30-Jan-15	130.8	-3.7
06-Feb-15	130.4	-4.0
13-Feb-15	130.3	-4.1
20-Feb-15	130.9	-4.3
27-Feb-15	130.7	-4.3
06-Mar-15	131.7	-3.8
13-Mar-15	131.3	-3.4
20-Mar-15	131.5	-3.1
27-Mar-15	132.6	-2.4
03-Apr-15	132.9	-1.9
10-Apr-15	132.7	-1.3
17-Apr-15	133.3	-0.6
24-Apr-15	134.1	-0.1
01-May-15	134.2	0.5
08-May-15	134.3	1.1
15-May-15	133.7	1.3
22-May-15	133.5	1.1
29-May-15	133.0	0.7
05-Jun-15	134.1	0.7
12-Jun-15	134.1	0.9
19-Jun-15	133.8	1.0
26-Jun-15	133.3	1.2
03-Jul-15	133.3	0.9
10-Jul-15	132.4	0.4
17-Jul-15	133.0	0.1
24-Jul-15	132.7	0.0
31-Jul-15	132.6	-0.2
07-Aug-15	132.0	-0.2
14-Aug-15	131.4	-0.8
21-Aug-15	131.2	-1.2
28-Aug-15	130.3	-2.0
04-Sep-15	130.7	-2.4
11-Sep-15	130.6	-2.6
18-Sep-15	131.4	-2.5
25-Sep-15	130.0	-2.5
02-Oct-15	131.9	-1.9
09-Oct-15	128.4	-2.6
16-Oct-15	129.7	-3.1
23-Oct-15	129.6	-3.2
30-Oct-15	129.6	-3.9
06-Nov-15	130.1	-3.2
13-Nov-15	130.9	-2.7
20-Nov-15	131.0	-2.2
27-Nov-15	131.6	-1.4
04-Dec-15	131.5	-0.8
11-Dec-15	131.0	-0.7
18-Dec-15	131.3	-0.6
25-Dec-15	130.6	-0.9
01-Jan-16	130.0	-1.5
08-Jan-16	130.7	-1.6
15-Jan-16	129.8	-2.1
22-Jan-16	129.9	-2.4
29-Jan-16	129.1	-2.7
05-Feb-16	129.9	-3.0
12-Feb-16	128.1	-3.6
19-Feb-16	128.8	-3.9
26-Feb-16	129.0	-3.9
04-Mar-16	130.3	-3.7
11-Mar-16	131.6	-2.4
18-Mar-16	132.3	-1.0
25-Mar-16	133.0	0.5
01-Apr-16	133.3	1.6
08-Apr-16	134.4	2.6
15-Apr-16	135.5	3.7
22-Apr-16	135.9	4.8
29-Apr-16	136.1	5.9
06-May-16	135.5	6.3
13-May-16	135.1	6.1
20-May-16	136.2	6.1
27-May-16	135.9	6.0
03-Jun-16	137.4	6.7
10-Jun-16	136.5	7.1
17-Jun-16	136.4	7.1

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2016-6-30 23:39

Chicago PMI surges in June
MarketWatch‎ - 13 hours ago

MNI Indicators said Thursday the Chicago PMI rose to 56.8, a rise of 7.5 points to move the ...

作者: 钢铁牛 时间: 2016-7-1 08:30

这么多，怎么看啊？

如果把这个数据的趋势与大盘指数的图像结合起来是否能有些相关性

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2016-7-1 10:22

美国供应管理协会（ISM）公布数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业指数53.2，高于预期和5月终值的51.3。其中物价支付指数60.5不及预期的63.5，但新订单指数57则超过预期的55.9。

作者: tianfangye 时间: 2016-7-1 20:28

个人认为，如果川普当选，股市动荡会加大
据民调机构拉斯姆森官方网站消息，截止于6月29日的一项最新线上民调显示，特朗普获得了43%的支持率，而希拉里则为39%。另有12%的受访者倾心于二人之外的人选，另有5%立场未定。

拉斯姆森发布的报告称，这是自去年十月以来，特朗普在该项民调中达到的最高峰。

此外，这份民调的误差区间为（-3%，+3%），可信度则达到了95%，样本数量为1000人。

不过，拉斯姆森对特朗普未来的选情表达了谨慎乐观，认为尚不能确定选民的倾向确实正在发生转变。

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