ames Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group, said he watches the multiple on trailing earnings, and he too sees the market correction continuing until the P/E, or valuation is at a lower level.
"It's not a hard and fast rule, but it's a rule to me, it's around 17 times. The reason for that is the old rule of 20, the P/E multiple sustains or comes back to 20, less the inflation rate. That's worked fairly well since the 1960s. Not that the multiple doesn't move away from it but it tends to come back to it. With inflation at 2.2 percent, it would be a little over 18 times so by year end it's going to be about 3 percent. That would put the sustainable multiple at around 17.5 times," he said.
Paulsen said on a forward basis, analysts expectations put S&P 500 earnings per share between $150 to $160 for 2018.
"I think at year end, [earnings will] probably be at around $150, and that would give you a year-end of 2,550," he said. "It certainly can go lower than that in the interim. But I think year-end it could be around that ball park and be a sustainable level for next year. My best guess is markets are going to break and go lower, but if they do and there's panic, I think that would be a buying opportunity." |
发表于 2018-4-3 18:07
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发表于 2018-4-4 15:19
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